Asian markets were subdued on Monday, as the extended Lunar New Year holiday approached and Japan reported lacklustre economic growth. The holiday period meant that trading floors were closed in mainland China, Seoul and Taipei. Hong Kong and Singapore have half-day trading on Monday. US stock markets will also remain closed for Presidents' Day. Limp gross domestic growth (GDP) in Japan rattled the post-election high of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi following her recent landslide win. The world's fourth-biggest economy expanded just 0.1 percent in the last three months of 2025. The figures -- which undershoot market forecasts of 0.4 percent -- add pressure on Takaichi, who made boosting economic growth a key pledge ahead of her landslide victory in February 8's snap elections.
The S&P 500 closed barely above the flatline on Friday as a key consumer inflation report that came in slightly lighter than expected failed to spark a substantial rally. The broad market index added 0.05% and ended at 6,836.17, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.22% and closed at 22,546.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 48.95 points, or 0.10%, and settled at 49,500.93. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index — which measures the costs for goods and services in the U.S. economy — rose 0.2% in January, reflecting a gain of 2.4% on an annualized basis.
Gold slipped below $5,030 per ounce on Monday after rising more than 2% in the previous session on weaker-than-expected US CPI data. The soft inflation prints reinforced expectations for more Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets now pricing in slightly more than two reductions this year. Investors are awaiting the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the US GDP advance estimate, and PCE inflation data for further clues on the timing of the next rate cut. On the geopolitical front, traders are monitoring nuclear talks between the US and Iran, as well as US-led negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, both scheduled to resume on Tuesday. Developments in these areas could influence risk sentiment and safe-haven demand.
WTI crude oil futures hovered around $62.8 per barrel on Monday after recording the first back-to-back weekly decline this year, with investors watching geopolitical developments. Attention is on the second round of US-Iran talks scheduled for Tuesday. Iranian minister indicated that Tehran is open to compromises to reach a nuclear deal with the US if Washington is willing to discuss lifting sanctions. Additionally, US-led negotiations aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine are set to start on Tuesday. However, expectations for a swift resolution remain low, limiting prospects for a return of Russian supplies to global markets in the near term. Despite these geopolitical factors, crude prices remain under pressure due to ample global supply, with reports suggesting that some OPEC members see room to resume supply hikes in April.
Japan's economy grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous three months, narrowly avoiding a technical recession. While it was a reversal of the 0.7% contraction in the third quarter, the gross domestic product missed expectations of a 0.4% expansion by economists polled by Reuters. A technical recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. On an annualized basis, output rose 0.2%, compared with forecasts of 1.6%, following a 2.3% decline in the previous quarter. Compared with a year earlier, fourth-quarter GDP expanded 0.1%, slowing from 0.6% in the third quarter. Private consumption drove the modest expansion, offsetting weakness in exports and public spending, according to data from Japan's Cabinet Office.
Iran is pursuing a nuclear agreement with the U.S. that delivers economic benefits for both sides, an Iranian diplomat was reported as saying on Sunday, days before a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington. Iran and the U.S. renewed negotiations earlier this month to tackle their decades-long dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme and avert a new military confrontation. The U.S. has dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the region and is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if the talks do not succeed, U.S. officials have told Reuters. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at a news conference in Bratislava, said President Donald Trump had made it clear that he would prefer diplomacy and a negotiated settlement, while making clear that may not happen.
Lawmakers and the White House offered no signs of compromise Sunday in their battle over oversight of federal immigration officers that has led to a pause in funding for the Department of Homeland Security. A partial government shutdown began Saturday after congressional Democrats and President Donald Trump’s team failed to reach a deal on legislation to fund the department through September. Democrats are demanding changes to how immigration operations are conducted after the fatal shootings of U.S. citizens Alex Pretti and Renee Good by federal officers in Minneapolis last month. Congress is on recess until Feb. 23, and both sides appear dug into their positions.
Ukraine’s government and the International Monetary Fund have agreed to ease some conditions, including sensitive tax increases, for a new $8.2 billion lending programme, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on Saturday. She said the IMF board was expected to review the programme at its next meeting, noting its approval was crucial for unlocking other international support, including a 90-billion-euro ($106.8 billion) EU loan. As the war with Russia grinds into its fifth year, Ukraine relies on Western financial aid to sustain its defences, keep the economy running, and pay wages and pensions. After discussions, "the mission has simplified the agreements reached in November" and revised some structural benchmarks, Svyrydenko said, in remarks released by her office on Saturday. In November, the IMF and Ukraine reached a staff-level agreement on the new four-year program.
Warner Bros Discovery is considering reopening sale talks with rival Hollywood studio Paramount Skydance after receiving its hostile suitor’s most recent amended offer, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday, citing people with knowledge of the matter. Members of Warner Bros’ board are discussing whether Paramount could offer the path to a superior deal, the Bloomberg report said, adding that the board has not decided how to respond and may stick to the current deal with Netflix. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Paramount, Warner Bros and Netflix did not respond to requests for comment. Paramount had enhanced its Warner Bros bid last week by offering shareholders extra cash for each quarter the deal fails to close after this year.
Vietnam’s government has allowed SpaceX to launch its Starlink satellite internet service in the country, state media reported on Saturday. The report said the Ministry of Science and Technology granted Starlink’s local unit a license to provide both fixed and mobile satellite internet services. The company was also granted a license to use radio frequencies and radio equipment. The ministry did not immediately respond to a request for confirmation outside business hours. The approval came ahead of an expected visit next week of Vietnam’s top leader To Lam to the United States to attend the inaugural meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace initiative to address global conflicts. The trip has not been officially announced. Last year, Vietnam’s government said it would allow SpaceX to operate its internet service on a trial basis.
The U.S. eased sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector on Friday, issuing two general licenses that allow global energy companies to operate oil and gas projects in the OPEC member and for other companies to negotiate contracts to bring in fresh investments. The move was the most significant relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela since U.S. forces captured and removed President Nicolas Maduro last month. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license allowing Chevron, BP, Eni, Shell and Repsol to operate oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Those companies still have offices in the country and stakes in projects, and are among the main partners of state-run company PDVSA. The authorization for the oil majors’ operations requires payments for royalties and Venezuelan taxes to go through the U.S.-controlled Foreign Government Deposit Fund.
Rivian’s projection that its cheaper models would attract more buyers this year drove a 25% stock jump on Friday, the latest sign of electric vehicle makers betting on affordable cars to revive sales after a key U.S. federal subsidy expired. The company plans to roll out a new R2 model in the second quarter starting at nearly $45,000, similar to Tesla’s Model Y, marking a significant step down from the high-end R1 family of vehicles that Rivian is known for. Rivian’s move is part of a broader shift in the industry this year, with automakers pursuing lower-priced models to drum up demand after EV sales took a hit from the expiry of the $7,500 tax break and other Trump administration policy changes.
