- Oil Slides, Stocks Rise as Trump Announces Truce: Markets Wrap
Oil slumped and stocks rallied after President Donald Trump said Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire,
spurring optimism the worst of the Middle East conflict is over. Global benchmark Brent crude tumbled almost
5% in early Asian trading after Trump made the surprise comment on his Truth Social platform. S&P 500 futures
rose 0.5%, while stock indexes advanced across Asia. Haven assets declined, with the dollar weakening against
all its Group-of-10 peers, and gold falling. Trump’s statement followed Iran’s strikes on a US base in Qatar
Monday that were flagged in advance and seen as largely symbolic, helping push the S&P 500 to a gain of 1%
on Monday. - Dow rises more than 350 points Monday as oil slides on Iran’s restrained retaliation to U.S. attacks
Stocks rose and crude prices tumbled Monday as investors breathed a sigh of relief that Iran’s response to the
U.S. attacks over the weekend was more restrained than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
374.96 points, or 0.89%, ending at 42,581.78. The S&P 500 gained 0.96% and closed at 6,025.17, while the
Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.94% and settled at 19,630.97. - Oil prices fall to over one-week lows as Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday to their lowest level in more than a week as U.S. President Donald Trump said a
ceasefire has been agreed between Iran and Israel, relieving worries of supply disruption in the area. Brent
crude futures fell $2.69 or 3.76% to $68.79 a barrel as of 0006 GMT, after falling more than 4% earlier in the
session and touching its lowest level since June 11. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped $2.7, or
3.94%, to $65.46 per barrel, having hit its weakest level since June 9 earlier in the session and falling around
6%. Trump announced on Monday that Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a ceasefire, adding that Iran will
begin the ceasefire immediately, followed by Israel after 12 hours. If both sides maintain peace, the war will
officially end after 24 hours, concluding a 12-day conflict. He said that a “complete and total” ceasefire will go
into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations. - Gold at near 2-week low after Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
Gold prices fell to a near two-week low on Tuesday as risk appetite improved after U.S. President Donald Trump
said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, denting demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold was down 0.5%
to $3,351.47 an ounce, as of 0257 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since June 11 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures slipped 0.9% to $3,365.30. “It seems like there’s a good bit of geopolitical risk that’s exiting
the market here near term after, of course, we have signs of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran,” said Ilya
Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. Trump announced a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran,
potentially ending the 12-day conflict that saw millions flee Tehran and prompted fears of further escalation
in the war-torn region. There was no immediate comment from Israel. While an Iranian official earlier
confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, the country’s foreign minister said there would be no
cessation of hostilities unless Israel stopped its attacks. - Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire; Tehran launches more missiles at Israel
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Monday evening on Truth Social that Israel and Iran have agreed to a
“Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” following what he referred to as “THE 12 DAY WAR.” Iran kept up its offensive
against Israel after Trump’s announcement. Tehran was seen launching at least five waves of missile strikes on
various Israeli targets, with some casualties being reported. The strikes came just before the purported
deadline set by Trump for the ceasefire. Iranian state television confirmed Trump’s agreement, while Israel
was also seen acknowledging the truce. According to Trump’s post, the ceasefire will begin approximately six
hours after his announcement, around 00:00 ET (04:00 GMT) when both nations have “wound down and
completed their in progress, final missions.” The agreement stipulates a 12-hour initial ceasefire period
initiated by Iran, followed by Israel joining the ceasefire at the 12th hour. Trump stated that upon the 24th
hour, there will be an “Official END” to the conflict. During each ceasefire period, Trump noted that “the other
side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL.” The announcement comes days after the U.S. bombing of three
Iranian nuclear sites. The U.S. military had dropped high-yield bunker busters on Iran’s underground nuclear
facilities, which Trump claimed had “obliterated” them. In his social media statement, Trump congratulated
both nations on having “the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence” to end the conflict, adding that this was a war
that “could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East.” Trump said in another social media
post that both Iran and Israel had approached him to broker a ceasefire. - Middle East ocean freight rates soar on Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz shipping risks
Ocean freight rates to the Port of Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates are surging as Israel continues to
attack Iran and Iran reported its first attack on U.S. military bases, after a weekend that saw U.S. strikes on
Iranian nuclear targets. Rates from Shanghai to the Khor Fakkan, which is situated on the UAE Indian Ocean
coastline, are up 76% in comparison to mid-May, according to spot ocean freight rate data tracked by freight
intelligence platform Xeneta. The average spot rates have reached $3,341 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU.)
The Port of Khor Fakkan is located outside the Strait of Hormuz. Due to its location, the port is considered to
be one of the most important transshipment hubs for the Arabian Gulf, the Indian Sub-continent, the Gulf of
Oman, and the East African markets. “Shippers in the region have acted with caution as the level of risk has
gradually increased,” said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta. “Shippers have been frontloading cargo
in the most recent months, to bolster the supply chain from adverse disruptions to the flow of containerized
goods.” The Port of Khor Fakkan has had 81 vessels arrive within the past 24 hours, and 51 ships are expected
to arrive in the next 30 days, according to VesselFinder. The conflict in the Middle East has elevated vessel
security risks, which have added to operational costs. Vessels are also moving faster, which results in more fuel
being used, which also adds to costs. - DeepSeek aids China’s military and evaded export controls, US official says
AI firm DeepSeek is aiding China’s military and intelligence operations, a senior U.S. official told Reuters,
adding that the Chinese tech startup sought to use Southeast Asian shell companies to access high-end
semiconductors that cannot be shipped to China under U.S. rules. The U.S. conclusions reflect a growing
conviction in Washington that the capabilities behind the rapid rise of one of China’s flagship AI enterprises
may have been exaggerated and relied heavily on U.S. technology. Hangzhou-based DeepSeek sent
shockwaves through the technology world in January, saying its artificial intelligence reasoning models were
on par with or better than U.S. industry-leading models at a fraction of the cost. “We
understand that DeepSeek has willingly provided and will likely continue to provide support
to China’s military and intelligence operations,” a senior State Department official told Reuters in an interview.
“This effort goes above and beyond open-source access to DeepSeek’s AI models,” the official said, speaking
on condition of anonymity in order to speak about U.S. government information. The U.S. government’s
assessment of DeepSeek’s activities and links to the Chinese government have not been previously
reported and come amid a wide-scale U.S.-China trade war. Among the allegations, the official said DeepSeek is sharing user information and statistics with Beijing’s surveillance apparatus. The
big three U.S. cloud providers Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet’s Google offer DeepSeek to customers.
Chinese law requires companies operating in China to provide data to the government when requested. But
the suggestion that DeepSeek is already doing so is likely to raise privacy and other concerns for the firm’s tens
of millions of daily global users. The U.S. also maintains restrictions on companies it believes are linked
to China’s military-industrial complex. U.S. lawmakers have previously said that DeepSeek, based on its privacy
disclosure statements, transmits American users’ data to China through “backend infrastructure” connected
to China Mobile, a Chinese state-owned telecommunications giant. DeepSeek did not respond to questions
about its privacy practices. The company is also referenced more than 150 times in procurement records
for China’s People’s Liberation Army and other entities affiliated with the Chinese defense industrial base, said
the official, adding that DeepSeek had provided technology services to PLA research institutions. - Tesla shares close up 8% after Robotaxi service launch
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares surged Monday after the company officially launched its long-awaited Robotaxi
service in Austin, Texas, using a small fleet of 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles. The electric vehicle (EV) giant’s shares
closed 8.2% higher at $348.63. The service is limited to geo-fenced areas within the city and currently excludes
trips to and from airports. Safety measures include a Tesla monitor seated in the front passenger seat and
remote driver oversight, though the in-vehicle monitor does not control or comment during rides. Tesla is
charging a flat-rate fee of $4.20 per ride as part of the introductory program. According to Wall Street analysts,
the initial investor sentiment appears neutral, with RBC Capital Markets noting that the basic framework of the
launch was expected. “What is new here is the safety monitor being in the passenger seat and the remote
drivers monitoring as backup,” the firm’s analysts said. RBC continues to view robotaxis as a core part of Tesla’s
equity story, estimating that autonomy could represent around 60% of the company’s valuation. They
emphasized that if Tesla proves its camera-based system can deliver safe and reliable service at scale, it may
gain a competitive edge given the cost advantages over lidar- and radar-heavy alternatives. - Novo Nordisk shares slip as much as 2.9%, worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Monday
morning, after researchers presented new data on the Danish drugmaker’s next-generation obesity shot
CagriSema
Barclays analysts noted investor skepticism, while Jefferies said consensus expectations are still “overly
optimistic on CagriSema peak sales.” CagriSema helped patients lose weight in large studies despite only about
three-quarters of the patients ever making it to the highest dose. Surprisingly, patients who chose to stick with
a lower dose lost more weight on average. The studies allowed patients to stop at lower doses of the drug, an
unusual option in a trial. Investigators were allowed to keep people on lower doses to manage side effects or
if they were already losing enough weight. It’s unclear why some patients did better, though Timothy Garvey
— director of the Diabetes Research Center at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, who helped lead the
trials — noted that they tended to have lower body-mass index at the start of the trial. Barclays (overweight):
The weight loss metrics for CagriSema in patients on the 2.4mg dose show a better profile than semaglutide
monotherapy or cagrilintide monotherapy, analyst Emily Field writes in a note; Even so, investors “remained
skeptical” and were “concerned” that patients decreasing their doses or not finishing the trial at the maximum
dose due to the rapid weight loss was because of “adverse events”; “Potential increased rates of depression
were brought up to us multiple times”. - Energy stocks gain while airlines fall as unprecedented US airstrikes on Iran set traders and governments
worldwide on edge, as the Islamic Republic warns of retaliation and Israel shows no sign of letting up in its
assault
The Stoxx 600 energy sector is the best performer on Monday, up 0.3% while the broader market is little
changed by 9:07 a.m. in Frankfurt. Brent crude futures were steady, trimming an initial spike of 5.7%. Shell
+0.6% in Amsterdam, BP +1.1% in London, TotalEnergies +0.4% in Paris, Equinor +0.4% in Oslo, Galp Energia
+0.79% in Lisbon, Repsol +0.74% in Madrid. - FactSet shares rise as much as 4.9% Monday, the most intraday since April, after the company
maintained its full-year guidance
THIRD QUARTER RESULTS: Adjusted EPS $4.27 vs. $4.37 y/y, estimate $4.29 (Bloomberg Consensus); Revenue
$585.5 million, +5.9% y/y, estimate $581.1 million; Organic revenue +4.4%, estimate +4.57%; Adjusted
operating income $215.3 million, -1.2% y/y, estimate $211.1 million; Adjusted operating margin 36.8% vs.
39.4% y/y, estimate 36.9%; Americas rev. $380.5 million, +6.7% y/y, estimate $377.7 million; EMEA revenue
$145.7 million, +3.2% y/y, estimate $145.6 million; Asia Pacific revenue $59.3 million, +7.8% y/y, estimate $58.6
million; Client count 8,811, +9.7% y/y, estimate 8,835; User count 220,496, +5.9% y/y, estimate 222,416. YEAR
FORECAST: Still sees adjusted EPS $16.80 to $17.40, estimate $17.09; Still sees revenue $2.31 billion to $2.33
billion, estimate $2.31 billion; Still sees adjusted operating margin 36% to 37%, estimate 36.7%. Organic ASV is
expected to grow in the range of $100 million to $130 million during fiscal 2025. “We are pleased with our third
quarter performance, which reflects the execution of our enterprise solution strategy.”
