- Futures Rise, Dollar Up as US Shutdown Risk Eases: Markets Wrap
Asian stocks and US and European equity-index futures rallied Friday as signs the US will avoid a government
shutdown boosted sentiment. Shares in Japan and Australia climbed while the CSI 300 index of mainland
China stocks touched the highest level this year, reflecting fresh optimism over the prospect of more policy
support to boost consumption. Futures contracts for US equities advanced as a stopgap funding bill looked
set to pass and avoid a US government shutdown. That’s a change in mood after the S&P 500’s Thursday
drop brought its three-week rout past 10%, called a correction in trader parlance. The Nasdaq 100, also in a
correction, fell 1.9%. Treasuries eased up some of the gains from the prior session, when investors dashed to
haven assets in a move that lifted gold to a record and supported an the dollar. Gains for the greenback
extended into Friday, strengthening a gauge of the dollar for a third day. - S&P 500 closes in correction territory Thursday as stocks tumble again on Trump tariff threats
Stocks fell on Thursday, with equities unable to shake a three-week market rout under the weight of new
tariff threats from President Donald Trump. The S&P 500 dropped 1.39% to settle at 5,521.52. The index
ended the day in correction, 10.1% off its record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 537.36 points,
or 1.3%, marking its fourth day of declines and closing at 40,813.57. The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.96% with
shares of Tesla and Apple lower. - Oil bounces as Ukraine ceasefire deal remains elusive
Oil prices rebounded on Friday to recover some of their more than 1% losses in the previous session, partly
due to diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could bring back more Russian energy
supplies. Brent crude futures rose 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $70.34 a barrel by 0406 GMT after settling 1.5% lower
in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.03 a barrel, up 48 cents, or 0.7%,
after closing down 1.7% on Thursday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow
supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle, but sought a number of clarifications and
conditions that appeared to rule out a quick end to the fighting. “Russia’s tepid support of a 30-day cease-fire
proposal with Ukraine has reduced confidence around a ceasefire in the short term,” IG market analyst Tony
Sycamore said. “The feeling is that U.S. won’t lift sanctions until they agree a ceasefire.” However,
the global trade war that has roiled financial markets and raised recession fears is escalating with U.S.
President Donald Trump on Thursday threatening to slap a 200% tariff on wine, cognac and other alcohol
imports from Europe. The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could
exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the United States and
weaker than expected global demand. - Gold mounts record summit, eyes $3,000 peak
Gold hit a record high on Friday, as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and fears of trade tensions propelled prices,
along with increased expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold eased 0.1% to
$2,983.78 an ounce as of 0132 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,990.09 earlier in the session, within
touching distance of the key $3,000 milestone. Bullion is also poised to log a second straight weekly rise, with
a 2.5% gain so far. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,996.70. - Wholesale price measure was flat in February, compared with expected increase
Wholesale prices were flat in February providing some more welcome news on inflation amid tariff fears, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The producer price index, considered a leading indicator for
pipeline inflation pressures, showed no gain for the month after jumping an upwardly revised 0.6% in
January, seasonally adjusted figures showed. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3%
increase. Excluding food and energy, core PPI decreased 0.1%, also against an estimate for a 0.3% rise and
the first negative reading since July. Core prices excluding trade services showed a gain of 0.2%, also below a
0.3% estimate. Stock market futures pared losses following the report while Treasury yields remained higher.
The report comes a day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index rose 0.2% for February, putting
the headline inflation rate at 2.8%, a slight easing from January and some encouraging news at a time when
markets are concerned over the impact that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will have on costs. Whereas the
CPI measures what consumers pay at the register for goods and services, the PPI is a gauge of final demand
prices that producers get for their products. Federal Reserve officials more closely rely on a Commerce
Department inflation measure that will be released later this month, though the PPI and CPI figures feed into
that report. On a year-over-year basis, headline producer prices increased 3.2%, well ahead of the Fed’s 2%
goal though below the 3.7% pace in January. The core PPI was up 3.4% in February, down 0.4 percentage
point from January. - Hong Kong PPI Rises to 4.20% in Fourth Quarter 2024 Amidst Economic Adjustments
Hong Kong’s Producer Price Index (PPI) has demonstrated a significant uptick, reaching 4.20% in the fourth
quarter of 2024, as per the latest data updated on March 13, 2025. This rise marks a substantial year-over
year comparison, particularly considering the previous PPI indicator was at 3.20% during the third quarter of 2024. The PPI increase reflects the changing dynamics in Hong Kong’s production and wholesale sectors. This
year-over-year growth signifies a 1% increase, indicating adjustments in production costs, a possible
reflection of rising input prices or changes in market demand. This increase comes as a recalibration period
for Hong Kong’s economy, as these shifts could reverberate through various sectors, potentially affecting
pricing strategies and economic forecasts. Stakeholders will be closely monitoring subsequent quarters,
evaluating how these changes might impact the broader economic landscape in Hong Kong. - U.S. tariffs could thrust Germany into recession, central bank governor says
Ongoing U.S. tariffs could push Europe’s largest economy into a recession, German central bank President
Joachim Nagel warned. “Now we are in a world with tariffs, so we could expect maybe a recession for this
year, if the tariffs are really coming,” he said during a BBC podcast interview. The tariffs-led uncertainty come
at a time when the EU nations could be set to loosen their budgetary strings and accommodate additional
defense expenses, with Germany also planning a potential reform of key fiscal policies. - Putin wants direct White House talks before Ukraine ceasefire, but says he is open to deal in principle
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said Russia agrees in principle with the U.S.-led ceasefire plan
backed by Ukraine earlier this week, but stopped short of signing up to any deal, arguing that it needed
further negotiation and must lead to “enduring peace.” “We are in favor of it but there are nuances,” Putin
said when asked about the 30-day ceasefire deal brokered by the White House. - Trump threatens to put 200% tariff on French Champagne and other EU spirits
President Donald Trump said Thursday he plans to put a 200% tariff on alcohol from France and other
European nations in the latest escalation of global trade tensions. The U.S. tariff comes after the European
Union moved to reinstate an import tax on American whiskey. “The European Union, one of the most hostile
and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking
advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% Tariff on Whisky. If this Tariff is not removed
immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all wines, champagnes, & alcoholic products coming
out of France and other E.U. represented countries. This will be great for the wine and champagne businesses
in the U.S.,” Trump said on truth social. On Tuesday, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU,
announced it was retaliating against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum by lifting the suspension on previous
levies on U.S. goods, including whiskey, and imposing new ones. Those changes will take effect in April.
“The European Union must act to protect consumers and business. The countermeasures we take today are
strong but proportionate,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said Tuesday.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Thursday on Bloomberg Television that Trump was “totally
annoyed” by the EU’s actions, leading to the latest threat. The U.S. still plans to announce an additional
round of so-called reciprocal tariffs in April. European countries are expected to be impacted by those
measures as well. - Intel jumps nearly 15% as investors cheer appointment of new CEO Tan
Shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) closed 14% higher on Thursday, as Wall Street cheered its decision to name
former board member Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, who left in August over differences about the chipmaker’s
direction, after several years of market underperformance. Tan will be tasked with reviving the company’s
fortunes after it missed out on the artificial intelligence-driven semiconductor boom while plowing billions of
dollars into building out its chip-making business. Intel has posted several quarters of market share losses in
data centers and PCs, as well as billion-dollar losses in its manufacturing business, and over the past five
years, the stock has lost about 60% of its value, a period of time when the Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P
500 have both more than doubled. “Tan in as CEO at Intel was as good as stakeholders could have hoped
for,” said TD Cowen analysts, noting that he has “deep relationships” across the chip ecosystem that could
draw customers to the company’s contract manufacturing business. Tan will take the helm next week —
three months after Intel ousted CEO Pat Gelsinger. Tan had been brought into the board two years earlier to
help turn the company around, but left due to disagreements over the size of the company’s workforce and
its culture. Skepticism about Intel’s future has deepened in recent months amid reports that rivals, including
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), were evaluating the chip design and marketing business, while TSMC has
separately studied controlling some or all of its plants. - Adobe shares tumbled 13.9% on Thursday, after the maker of software for creative professionals gave
an outlook that was mixed relative to expectations
Evercore wrote that the report wasn’t strong enough to change the narrative around the stock. Jefferies (buy,
PT $650): The results show consistent execution but a slow AI ramp. Investors seem “unimpressed by new
and removed disclosures that aim to give clarity on the AI transition”. Evercore ISI (outperform, PT to $550
from $650): “Adobe delivered a solid start to FY25 though there wasn’t much to shift the debate back into
the bulls’ camp despite a fairly washed out valuation”. A material re-rating of the multiple “would require a
much more aggressive stance from management on the buyback as the fundamentals are unlikely to shift in a
material way near-term and the AI-related upside is essentially embedded in the current outlook”. FIRST
QUARTER RESULTS: Adjusted EPS $5.08 vs. $4.48 y/y, estimate $4.97. Revenue $5.71 billion, +10% y/y,
estimate $5.66 billion. Subscription revenue $5.48 billion, +12% y/y, estimate $5.42 billion. Product revenue
$95 million, -20% y/y, estimate $95.4 million. Remaining performance obligations $19.69 billion, +12% y/y,
estimate $19.8 billion. SECOND QUARTER FORECAST: Sees revenue $5.77 billion to $5.82 billion, estimate
$5.8 billion. Sees adjusted EPS $4.95 to $5.00, estimate $5.00. YEAR FORECAST: Still sees adjusted EPS $20.20
to $20.50, estimate $20.39. Still sees revenue $23.30 billion to $23.55 billion, estimate $23.5 billion. - DocuSign shares rose 11.6% in afterhours trading after the e-signature software company reported
fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a billings outlook that was seen as positive
Bloomberg Intelligence: The billings outlook “is encouraging, given the economy, and 4Q billings growth of
11% stands out, likely on steady execution”. RBC Capital Markets (sector perform, PT $90): This was “a solid
quarter overall,” and the billings beat was “well ahead of recent trends, while guidance was mixed across the
board”. FOURTH QUARTER RESULTS: Adjusted EPS 86c vs. 76c y/y, estimate 85c. Revenue $776.3 million, +9%
y/y, estimate $761.5 million. Subscription revenue $757.8 million, estimate $743.3 million. Billings $923.2
million, +11% y/y, estimate $863.8 million. FIRST QUARTER FORECAST: Sees revenue $745 million to $749
million, estimate $757.2 million. Sees subscription revenue $729 million to $733 million, estimate $738.5
million. Sees billings $741 million to $751 million, estimate $744.2 million. 2026 YEAR FORECAST: Sees billings
$3.30 billion to $3.35 billion, estimate $3.22 billion. Sees revenue $3.13 billion to $3.14 billion, estimate $3.15
billion. Sees subscription revenue $3.06 billion to $3.07 billion, estimate $3.07 billion. - Adobe gave a disappointing outlook for revenue growth in the current quarter, with sales expected to
be $5.77 billion to $5.82 billion
Analysts, on average, estimated $5.8 billion. Profit, excluding some items, will be $4.95 a share to $5 a share,
compared with the average projection of $5. The company’s stock declined 4% in afterhours trading, and has
slipped 24% over the past 12 months, with investor sentiment driven by views of Adobe’s AI strategy. Fiscal
first-quarter revenue increased 10% to $5.71 billion, topping the $5.66 billion anticipated by Wall Street.
Remaining performance obligations, a metric of future sales, were $19.7 billion, compared with the average
estimate of $19.8 billion. The digital media unit, which includes Adobe’s flagship creative and document
processing software, posted a 11% increase in sales to $4.23 billion. Revenue from the unit that includes
marketing and analytics software rose 10% to $1.41 billion. Adobe reaffirmed its FY2025 financial targets and
is scheduled to host an event for investors next week, where it will provide additional long-range financial
information and more details of its AI strategy. - Weibo’s Q4 revenue beats estimates, stock edges higher
On Thursday, Chinese social media platform Weibo Corporation (NASDAQ:WB) reported fourth quarter 2024
results that slightly exceeded analyst expectations for revenue. The company’s stock was up marginally by
+0.28% in premarket trading following the release. Weibo posted revenue of $456.8 million for the quarter,
surpassing the consensus estimate of $453.11 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.40,
matching analyst forecasts. The company’s advertising and marketing revenues declined 4% year-over-year
to $385.9 million, primarily due to weakness in the online gaming sector. However, value-added services
revenue grew 18% to $71.0 million, driven by growth in membership services and game-related revenues.
“We capped off the year with solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2024,” said Gaofei Wang, CEO of
Weibo. He noted the company delivered “solid performance” in advertising and “good momentum” in value
added services for the full year. Weibo’s monthly active users reached 590 million in December 2024, while
daily active users hit 260 million. The social media firm also announced its board has approved an annual
dividend policy, with a $200 million payout planned for fiscal 2024. - Ulta Beauty Q4 results top estimates; shares jump
Ulta Beauty reported Thursday fourth-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates following strong
demand over the holiday quarter. Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) shares gained 7% in after-hours trading
following the report. Ulta Beauty announced earnings per share of $8.46 on revenue of $3.5 billion. Analysts
polled by Investing.com anticipated EPS of $7.11 on revenue of $3.46 billion. Comparable sales increased
1.5%. For the full-year 2025, EPS was guided in a range of $22.50 to $22.90 on revenue between $11.5B to
$11.6B, compared with estimates for EPS of $24.04 on revenue of $11.26B Comparable sales are forecast at
between 0% to 1%. “Fiscal 2025 will be a pivotal year as we make purposeful investments to fuel our future
growth and move quickly to optimize our business,” the company said. - Tesla plans lower-cost Model Y in China to defend market share
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to introduce a more affordable version of its Model Y in China, aiming to
strengthen its position in its second-largest market, Reuters reported on Friday citing sources familiar with
the matter. Codenamed “E41,” the new model will be built at Tesla’s Shanghai factory using existing
production lines, with mass production expected to begin in 2026, Reuters reported. The vehicle will be
smaller and at least 20% cheaper to produce than the refreshed Model Y launched in late 2023, the report
stated. China remains a key battleground for Tesla, where rising competition from domestic EV makers,
including BYD Co (HK:1211) and Xiaomi (HK:1810), has pressured the U.S. automaker’s market share.
While most of the new Model Y’s production will serve the Chinese market, Tesla also plans to manufacture
the model in Europe and North America, according to the Reuters report. CEO Elon Musk had previously
hinted at introducing lower-cost models in 2025 but did not disclose details. Tesla continues to focus on
updating existing models, with plans to launch a six-seat Model Y variant later this year as it navigates
slowing sales in the U.S. and Europe, the report added.
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