- Oil Rises, US Futures Drop on Trump Tehran Warning: Markets Wrap
Global markets received a jolt in early Asia hours after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of
Tehran, in comments that contrasted with earlier optimism that Israel’s war against Iran wouldn’t escalate into
a wider conflict. US futures fell 0.6% and oil climbed almost 2% following Trump’s comments in a social media
post from a Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Alberta. It wasn’t clear what he was referring to but hours
earlier, Trump had said Iran wanted to make a deal. Oil had earlier dropped on signs that the conflict in the
Middle East may avoid disrupting crude production. A gauge of Asian stocks slipped, though Japanese and
South Korean shares were marginally higher, after risk-on sentiment returned to Wall Street on Monday and
pushed the S&P 500 up about 1% and back above 6,000. - Dow closes 300 points higher on cooling oil and hopes that Israel-Iran conflict will be contained
Stocks rebounded on Monday as investors were optimistic that the conflict between Israel and Iran may remain
contained. The spike in oil prices due to the escalating conflict also eased. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
rose 317.30 points, or 0.75%, closing at 42,515.09. The S&P 500 advanced 0.94% to end at 6,033.11, while the
Nasdaq Composite surged 1.52% and settled at 19,701.21. - Oil prices rise as Iran-Israel conflict fans supply worries
Oil prices climbed over 2% on Tuesday as Iran-Israel tension intensified and U.S. President Donald Trump urged
“everyone” to evacuate Tehran, increasing the prospect of deepening unrest in the region and disruption
to oil supply. The Brent crude futures contract was up $1.17, or 1.6%, at $74.4 a barrel as at 0005 GMT and
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.34, or 1.87%, at $73.11 – both having risen more than 2% earlier
in the trading session. Both contracts settled more than 1% lower on Monday on hope of easing geopolitical
tension after media reports of Iran seeking an end to hostilities. However, the conflict took a turn for the worse
on its fifth day on Tuesday as Iranian media reported explosions and heavy air defense fire in the capital
Tehran. Over in Israel, air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv in response to Iranian missiles. Iran is the third-largest
producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Hostilities could disrupt
its supply of oil and thereby increase prices. On Monday, an Israeli strike hit Iran’s state broadcaster and the
head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog also indicated extensive damage to Iran’s biggest uranium enrichment
plant. Trump said Iran should have signed a nuclear deal with the U.S. before Israeli strikes began and that he
believes Iran now wants to reach an agreement. Easing of U.S. sanctions as part of any deal would allow Iran
to export more oil, weighing on global crude prices. - Gold rises as Israel-Iran fighting, Trump’s evacuation call spark demand
Gold rebounded on Tuesday as heightened geopolitical uncertainty stemming from Israel-Iran fighting and U.S.
President Donald Trump’s call to evacuate Tehran led investors to seek safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 0.4%
at $3,396.67 an ounce, as of 0239 GMT, after dropping more than 1% on Monday. U.S. gold futures were steady
at $3,416.30. “Market sentiment continues to swing between escalation and de-escalation regarding events in
the Middle East, and these back-and-forth sentiment shifts are what is driving the gold price’s moves either
side of the $3400 level,” KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said. The fifth consecutive day of fighting
between Israel and Iran saw Israel strike Iran’s state broadcaster on Monday, while the head of the U.N. nuclear
watchdog reported extensive damage to Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility. Trump, returning
early from the G7 summit in Canada Monday night, urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran, citing the country’s
rejection of a nuclear weapons development curb deal. Reports also indicated that Trump had requested the
national security council to remain prepared in the situation room. Gold is considered a safe-haven asset during
times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. “There is enough prevailing uncertainty surrounding both tariff
wars and actual wars to buttress the gold price and keep it within sight of a potential return to $3,500,” Waterer
said. Investors are also looking forward to U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to start later in the day,
with decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady but the focus yet again will be on the
path its Chair Jerome Powell charts out for future rate cuts. Traders are currently pricing in two cuts by this
year-end. Elsewhere, spot silver was up 0.3% at $36.41 per ounce, platinum rose 0.6% to $1,251.20,
while palladium edged up 0.2% to $1,031.68. - BOJ leaves interest rates unchanged, to slow bond tapering from 2026
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged as widely expected on Tuesday, and stated that it will reduce
the pace at which it is tapering its monthly bond purchases from the next fiscal year. The BOJ left its benchmark
policy rate at 0.5% for a third consecutive meeting after a 25 basis point hike in January. The central bank said
it had decided on a plan to slow the pace at which it is cutting its bond purchases from next year. Starting from
April 2026, the BOJ will cut its bond purchases by about 200 billion yen per quarter, compared to its current
pace of 400 billion yen per quarter. The move is likely aimed at reducing market disruptions while also
maintaining sufficient support for the Japanese economy, which is grappling with increased headwinds from
steep U.S. trade tariffs. The BOJ said that it will conduct an interim assessment of the plan to reduce its bond
purchasing in June 2026. - Iran seeks ceasefire with Israel amid mounting pressure
Iran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to urge U.S. President Donald Trump to influence Israel to agree
to an immediate ceasefire, according to Reuters reports on Monday. In exchange, Tehran is offering flexibility
in nuclear negotiations. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian officials have communicated
to Arab leaders their willingness to return to negotiations, provided the United States does not join Israel’s
military campaign. Tehran has also sent messages to Israel suggesting that both nations would benefit from
containing the violence. U.S. stocks are reacting positively to the news, with the Dow extending gains to 1.1%
and the S&P 500 up 1.2% as of 10:40 AM ET. The tech-heavy NASDAQ is up 1.5%. Israel has established air
superiority over Tehran, giving Israeli leaders little motivation to halt operations before further damaging Iran’s
nuclear facilities and weakening the government’s control. Israeli strikes have eliminated key military
leadership, including most of Iran’s top air force commanders. - U.S. and UK announce a trade deal, but steel imports unresolved
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an agreement on Monday formally lowering some tariffs on imports from
Britain as the countries continue working toward a formal trade deal. The deal, announced by Trump and
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada, reaffirmed quotas and tariff
rates on British automobiles and eliminated tariffs on the U.K. aerospace sector, but the issue of steel and
aluminum remains unresolved. Other critical industries, such as pharmaceuticals, were not mentioned. Trump
said the relationship with Britain was “fantastic,” as he waved, and then briefly dropped, a document that he
said he had just signed. “We signed it and it’s done,” he said, incorrectly calling it a trade agreement with the
European Union, before making clear the deal was with Britain. Starmer called it “a very good day for both of
our countries, a real sign of strength”. The U.S. intends to impose a quota on steel and aluminum imports from
the United Kingdom that would be exempt from 25% tariffs, but it is conditioned upon Britain’s demonstrating
security on steel supply chains and production facilities, according to an executive order released by the White
House. The quota level will be set by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the White House said. Britain
had avoided tariffs of up to 50% on steel and aluminum that the U.S. imposed on other countries earlier this
month, but it could have faced elevated tariffs starting July 9 unless a deal to implement the tariff reduction
was reached. The two leaders reaffirmed a plan to give British carmakers an annual quota of 100,000 cars that
can be sent to the United States at a 10% tariff rate, less than the 25% rates other countries face. - Trump signals escalation in Israel-Iran conflict as he leaves G7 summit early
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said his early departure from the Group of Seven summit was owed
to “much bigger” things than panning a ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Tehran, after urging Iranians to
“immediately evacuate Tehran.” The conflict also prompted a joint statement from G7 leaders, affirming
support for Israel, while calling for a resolution to the escalating tensions in the Middle East. The group also
condemned Iran for being the “principal source of regional instability and terror,” reiterating the stance that
Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. In their joint statement, leaders of the world’s largest advanced
economies called for a resolution to the “Iranian crisis” and a “broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle
East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.” - Meta will start showing ads in WhatsApp’s “Updates” tab, which gets 1.5 billion visitors per day, and will
also allow advertisers to promote their WhatsApp Channel and sell subscriptions
The ads will use broad targeting like location, language preferences, and Channels followed, and will not
interrupt personal messages; users who don’t want to see ads can continue using WhatsApp for messaging and
calling without seeing them. The move is part of Meta’s effort to generate revenue to support its investments
in artificial intelligence and other long-term projects, and comes after years of developing a business to
accompany the private messaging service. - AMD shares jumped 8.8% on Monday amid a broad rally in semiconductor stocks as Piper Sandler said
products unveiled last week were positive and expects a “snapback” for the GPU business in the fourth
quarter
Analyst Harsh Kumar called out the Helios rack, which he expects to be “pivotal” for growth in AMD’s Instinct
GPUs; Kumar raised his price target on the overweight-rated stock to $140 from $125. Separately, BNP Paribas
Exane analyst David O’Connor said a call AMD held Friday with analysts sent a “reassuring message heading
into results next month with AI traction increasing” for AMD’s Instinct GPUs. - Estée Lauder, Coty – Speculation about deal-making drove beauty brands higher
The rally arrived on the heels of stronger-than-expected sales out of China, as well as speculation of a potential
sale of Estee Lauder following the death of chairman emeritus Leonard Lauder. Meanwhile, WWD reported,
citing industry sources, that Coty is mulling a sale that would split its luxury brands from its mass-market
brands, which include CoverGirl and Max Factor. Estee Lauder shares rose more than 10%, while Coty climbed
almost 7%. - U.S. Steel’s ‘partnership’ with Nippon Steel got Trump’s approval, with conditions including golden
shares, about 18 months after a deal was first announced
United States Steel Corp.’s stock jumped 5.1%. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on social media
over the weekend that the golden share held by the U.S., coming from Nippon Steel’s $14 billion “investment”
in U.S. Steel, contains “powerful terms that directly benefit and protect America,” while delivering “massively
expanded access” to domestically produced steel to U.S. manufacturers. With the golden share, the president
will now have the power to prevent the relocation of U.S. Steel’s headquarters out of Pittsburgh, rename the
company, or move jobs outside the U.S., Lutnick said - Intellia’s HAE gene therapy shows 98% attack reduction in three-year data
The Phase 1 trial data showed that a single dose of lonvoguran ziclumeran (lonvo-z, or NTLA-2002) led to a 98%
mean reduction in monthly HAE attack rates across all 10 patients in the study. All patients remained attack
free and treatment-free for a median of 23 months through the latest follow-up. The treatment maintained its
efficacy throughout the three-year period, with stability of effects observed across the duration of the study.
The stock, currently trading at $8.31, follows the company’s presentation of positive three-year data for its
hereditary angioedema (HAE) treatment at the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology meeting. - Victoria’s Secret faces fresh activist fight from Barington Capital
Activist investor Barington Capital Group is pushing Victoria’s Secret to alter its board and end a recently
adopted “poison pill” plan, according to a letter to the lingerie maker’s shareholders on Monday. The New
York-based hedge fund, which owns more than 1% of the company, said Victoria’s Secret has underperformed
its competitors and lost over $2.4 billion in shareholder value since its spin-off in 2021 from former parent
company L Brands. Victoria’s Secret requires a reconstituted board comprising directors with “proven
experience in brand revitalization, operational execution, international expansion, and shareholder value
creation,” James Mitarotonda, Barington’s founder and CEO, said in the letter. The investment firm said the
retailer should focus on core categories and initiatives, like bras and the Angels campaign, and accelerate
growth in digital and international markets.
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