- Stock Futures Rise on Hope of Targeted US Tariffs: Markets Wrap
US and European stock-index futures climbed on signs that the next round of President Donald Trump’s
tariffs may be more measured than previously suggested. Futures for the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 rose
along with equities in China, though a broader gauge of Asian shares edged lower. The 10-year US Treasury
yield advanced. The dollar was little changed while the yen declined. Sentiment is improving as the next
round of US tariffs due April 2 is poised to be more targeted than the sprawling, fully global effort Trump has
otherwise mused about, according to officials familiar with the matter. Still, traders remain on edge with
officials in China and Australia warning of widespread shocks to the global economy from US trade policy. - S&P 500 ekes out a gain Friday, snaps four-week losing run
The S&P 500 inched higher on Friday, ending four consecutive weeks of declines that were brought on by
trade policy turmoil, recession fears and a rollover in megacap tech shares. The S&P 500 added 0.08%, rising
into positive territory as the trading session drew to a close. The broad market index ended the day at
5,667.56. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.52% and settled at 17,784.05, while the Dow Jones Industrial
Average advanced 32.03 points, or 0.08%, to close at 41,985.35. The broad-market S&P 500 posted a 0.5%
weekly advance, averting a fifth straight week of losses. The Nasdaq rose 0.2% week to date, and the Dow
posted a 1.2% gain. - Oil posts weekly gain on Iran sanctions, OPEC+ plan to rein in overproduction
Oil prices rose on Friday, posting their second consecutive weekly gains, after fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and
a new OPEC+ plan for seven members to cut output raised bets on tightening supply. Brent crude
futures climbed 16 cents, or 0.22%, to close at $72.16 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
futures gained 21 cents, or 0.31%, to settle at $68.28 a barrel. On a weekly basis, Brent gained 2.24% and WTI
rose rise 1.64%. The United States Treasury on Thursday announced new Iran-related sanctions, which for
the first time targeted an independent Chinese refiner among other entities and vessels involved in supplying
Iranian crude oil to China. That marked Washington’s fourth round of sanctions against Iran since U.S.
President Donald Trump in February vowed to reimpose a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran,
pledging to drive the country’s oil exports to zero. Analysts at ANZ Bank said they expect a 1 million barrels
per day (bpd) reduction in Iranian crude oil exports because of tighter sanctions. Vessel tracking service Kpler
pegged Iranian crude oil exports at over 1.8 million bpd in February, cautioning that the masking of Iranian
vessel activity due to sanctions could lead to revisions to those numbers. Oil prices were also supported by
a new OPEC+ plan announced Thursday for seven members to further cut output to make up for producing
more than agreed levels. The plan would represent monthly cuts of between 189,000 bpd and 435,000 bpd,
and will last until June 2026. The plan will buffer all the supply increments that OPEC+ had previously
announced will take effect from next month, Kpler’s head of Middle East energy Amena Bakr said in a post on
social media service X. OPEC+ earlier this month confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a
monthly increase of 138,000 bpd from April, reversing some of the 5.85 million bpd of output cuts agreed in a
series of steps since 2022 to support the market. - Gold dips on higher dollar, still eyes third weekly gain
Gold fell over 1% on Friday due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking, although lingering geopolitical and
economic uncertainties, and U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut prospects kept bullion on track for a third
consecutive weekly rise. Spot gold was down 1% at $3,014.36 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to
$3,021.80. Bullion has gained 0.7% so far this week. Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment
during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and typically thriving in a low-interest rate
environment, has hit 16 record highs this year, reaching an all-time peak of $3,057.21 per ounce on Thursday.
“The market is taking a bit of a breather. There’s some profit-taking at these levels and also the dollar is
stronger today,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. The U.S. dollar rose 0.2%, hitting a two-week high and
making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. “Ongoing safe-haven demand, both
based on trade concerns and geopolitical risks, continues to be the primary driving force,” said Peter Grant,
vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. U.S. President Donald Trump still intends for new
reciprocal tariff rates to take effect on April 2. The Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday
as widely expected, but indicated two quarter-percentage-point cuts before the end of the year.
Traders are pricing in 71 basis points of easing this year from the Fed with at least two rate reductions of 25
bps each, with a cut in July fully priced in, LSEG data showed. Israel announced an escalation in air, land, and
sea strikes against Hamas in Gaza to pressure the release of remaining hostages, effectively abandoning a
two-month ceasefire and launching an all-out air and ground campaign against the dominant Palestinian
militant group. Spot silver slid 2.2% to $32.80 an ounce, platinum lost 1.3% to $972.25 and palladium was
steady at $952.04. All three metals were poised for weekly losses. - Singapore core inflation falls further to 0.6% in February, lowest since June 2021
Singapore’s core inflation and overall inflation declined again in February on the back of smaller year-on-year
price increases across most broad categories. Core inflation, which excludes private transport and
accommodation costs to better reflect the expenses of households here, eased to 0.6 per cent year on year,
from 0.8 per cent in January. This is the lowest since June 2021 when core inflation was 0.6 per cent, and
much lower than the 3.6 per cent rate recorded in February 2024. It is also below the 0.7 per cent forecast by
economists in a Bloomberg poll. Overall – or headline – inflation also cooled to 0.9 per cent year on year in
February, from 1.2 per cent in January. It came in slightly higher though than the Bloomberg poll forecast of
1.0 per cent. It came as private transport inflation moderated, in addition to the fall in core inflation, the
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in their joint report on
March 24. - Beijing pledges greater market access as top global CEOs gather at the China Development Forum
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng has reassured foreign business leaders that Beijing will continue to open up its
market and welcome more investment from multinational companies, according to a readout from the
Ministry of Commerce. He also discussed deepening economic and trade partnerships between U.S. and
China at the meeting Sunday with top executives from Apple, Pfizer, Mastercard, Eli Lilly and other
multinational companies, the statement said. “China remains committed to expanding high-level opening-up
of market, improving the business environment and welcoming more multinational companies to deepen
their investment in China,” Li said, adding that China’s economy is “resilient, full of potential and vitality.”
Foreign CEOs including Tim Cook of Apple, Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm, Pascal Soriot of AstraZeneca as well
as visiting U.S. Republican Senator Steve Daines are in Beijing to attend the China Development Forum that
kicked off Sunday. Beijing has been seeking to attract foreign investment as its economy grapples with
sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged real estate slump. U.S. tariffs have threatened to slow down
its export, a rare bright spot in the faltering economy. At the opening of the two-day business forum, Chinese
Premier Li Qiang said countries should open their markets in the face of growing economic fragmentation
and urged entrepreneurs to be “staunch defenders and promoters of globalization.” China’s State Council
unveiled last month an action plan aimed at attracting foreign investment, which outlined steps including
removing some restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector and improving the process for
foreign funds to carry out mergers and acquisitions in the mainland. U.S. President Donald Trump has
imposed 20% in new tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s alleged role in illicit fentanyl trade. His
administration is also expected to conclude a review by April 1 of Beijing’s compliance with a trade deal that
the two sides had signed during his first term. - China’s property market edges toward an inflection point
UBS analysts on Wednesday became the latest to raise expectations that China’s struggling real estate
market is close to stabilizing. “After four or five years of a downward cycle, we have begun to see some
relatively positive signals,” John Lam, head of Asia-Pacific property and Greater China property research at
UBS Investment Bank, told reporters Wednesday. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin
language remarks. “Of course these signals aren’t nationwide, and may be local,” Lam said. “But compared to
the past, it should be more positive.” One indicator is improving sales in China’s largest cities. Existing home
sales in five major Chinese cities have climbed by more than 30% from a year ago on a weekly basis as of
Wednesday, according to CNBC analysis of data accessed via Wind Information. The category is typically
called “secondary home sales” in China, in contrast to the primary market, which has typically consisted of
newly built apartment homes. UBS now predicts China’s home prices can stabilize in early 2026, earlier than
the mid-2026 timeframe previously forecast. They expect secondary transactions could reach half of the total
by 2026. UBS looked at four factors — low inventory, a rising premium on land prices, rising secondary sales
and increasing rental prices — that had indicated a property market inflection point between 2014 and 2015.
As of February 2025, only rental prices had yet to see an improvement, the firm said. Chinese policymakers in
September called for a “halt” in the decline of the property sector, which accounts for the majority of
household wealth and just a few years earlier contributed to more than a quarter of the economy. Major
developers such as Evergrande have defaulted on their debt, while property sales have nearly halved since
2021 to around 9.7 trillion yuan ($1.34 trillion) last year, according to S&P Global Ratings. - Boeing won a contract to design and build the US’s next-generation stealth fighter jet, beating out
rival Lockheed Martin Corp. for the multibillion dollar program
The new sixth-generation fighter jet, whose overall cost is expected to run in the hundreds of billions of
dollars, “will ensure that the USA continues to dominate the skies,” President Donald Trump said. Trump, the
47th president, said with a smile that it will be dubbed the F-47. The award caps more than two years of
competition between the defense giants for the full-scale development phase of the Next Generation Air
Dominance manned fighter, or NGAD. The jet, which will replace the F-22 Raptor, is envisioned to operate in
tandem with drones, which are being developed in a separate program. While little has been made public
about the project, budget figures released last year showed that the Air Force plans to spend as much as $20
billion on NGAD research and development through 2029. Overall costs will be many times that if the most
recent stealth jet, Lockheed’s F-35, is any guide. That jet is expected to cost US taxpayers almost $2 trillion by
the end of its lifespan. “The F-47 will be the most advanced, most capable, most lethal aircraft ever built,”
Trump said. The US plans to sell the jets to “certain allies,” though “perhaps toned-down versions,” he said.
Boeing shares rose 3.1% while Lockheed fell 5.8%. - Tesla Q1 deliveries to miss consensus by more than 10%
Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries are expected to fall well below consensus estimates, with Barclays forecasting
approximately 350,000 units—significantly lower than the 400,000-unit consensus. “We estimate 1Q
deliveries of ~350k units, well below consensus ~400k,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note Friday, highlighting
that this represents a 30% sequential decline and a 10% year-over-year drop. The Model Y refresh and weak
seasonality are said to be key contributors to the lower figures, with Barclays acknowledging that “investor
expectations are more in this range given soft data points thus far in the quarter.” Tesla’s inventory levels
are also expected to shrink, with the bank estimating a 20,000-unit drawdown, reducing global inventory to
70,000-80,000 units due to lower China production for exports and reduced global output during the Model Y
Juniper ramp. Despite the anticipated weak Q1 result, Barclays suggests that the market may “write off” the
quarter due to management’s prior guidance. “1Q volume was already guided down in the 4Q earnings call,
with mgmt noting ’several weeks of lost production in the quarter’ from the global Model Y production
changeover,” the note highlighted. The weakness was said to be primarily concentrated in January and
February, and Barclays sees the March delivery run-rate as a more accurate indicator for full-year estimates.
Additionally, Q1 is historically Tesla’s weakest quarter, with Barclays pointing out that Q1 2024 also saw
similar softness but ultimately accounted for just 22% of the full-year volume. The firm expects significant
volume improvements in Q2 through Q4. - BYD Co.’s earnings later Monday could be the factor cementing the electric-vehicle leader’s place as
China’s most valuable non-state onshore stock
For the first time this month, BYD’s market value surpassed that of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.,
reaching 1.2 trillion yuan ($168 billion) on Thursday. But a 7% stock slump on Friday — BYD’s biggest since
August 2022 — gave the No. 1 position back to CATL. BYD now trades at about 20 times earnings for the next
year, below its three-year average, and compares with almost 83 times for peer Tesla Inc. The plunge is a
reminder of how vulnerable the shares are to regulatory and geopolitical risks. Before Friday, BYD was up
more than 40% this year, hitting a series of records as the company unveiled a slew of new models featuring
technology upgrades in its battery system and smart-driving functionalities. Battery giant CATL, on the other
hand, was slightly down, with a market value of about 1.1 trillion yuan. As BYD and CATL fight for stock
market dominance, the carmaker’s earnings may make a difference. Investors will closely watch its targets for
full-year sales and exports, as well as any update on how its aggressive pricing strategy is affecting profit per
vehicle. Options traders are pricing in a 4.5% move in the Hong Kong-listed stock after the release, more than
the average fluctuation of 3% following the last eight quarterly reports. - OpenAI, Meta in talks with Reliance for AI partnerships, The Information reports
OpenAI and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) have held separate discussions with India’s Reliance
Industries (NSE:RELI) over potential partnerships to expand their artificial intelligence offerings in the
country, technology news website The Information reported on Saturday. A possibility being discussed
involved a relationship between Reliance Jio and OpenAI to distribute ChatGPT, according to The
Information, which cited two sources familiar with the matter. OpenAI also discussed with employees cutting
the ChatGPT subscription price to as low as several dollars instead of $20 a month, according to the report,
which added that it is not clear if OpenAI has discussed the idea of price reduction with Reliance. Reliance has
discussed selling OpenAI’s models to its enterprise customers through an application programming interface
or API, The Information report added, saying that the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate also discussed
hosting and running OpenAI models locally, so the data of local customers can be kept within India. In
particular, Reliance has discussed running the Meta and OpenAI models in a three-gigawatt data center that
the company is planning to build, which it has said is the largest data center in the world, located in the city
of Jamnagar in Gujarat. Meta declined to comment on The Information report. OpenAI and Reliance did not
immediately respond to requests for comment on the report. Reliance Industries is one of the largest
conglomerates in India, engaged in petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, telecommunications,
retail and green energy. - Lennar shares dropped 4% after the homebuilder’s guidance for second-quarter margins came in below
expectations amid a challenging US housing market. The company also provided new guidance for 2Q
orders that fell short of analyst estimates
Evercore (outperform): The bigger news was the company’s 2Q gross margin guide of 18%, which is 70 basis
points lower than 1Q. The company must generate materially higher margins to sustain double-digit
operating profitability. Citizen (market outperform): gross margin missed expectation. Consumer demand is
impacting affordability, requiring builders to offer lower prices. “We are hopeful that 2025 represents a low
point for homebuyer demand as Fed rate reductions are expected to occur later this year,” wrote analysts
Aaron Hecht and Linda Fu. Rating and $170 price target. SECOND QUARTER FORECAST: Sees new orders
22,500 to 23,500, estimate 23,800. Sees deliveries 19,500 to 20,500, estimate 19,675. Sees Gross Margin on
Home Sales about 18%. FIRST QUARTER RESULTS: Adjusted EPS $2.14 vs. $2.57 y/y, estimate $1.73. Revenue
$7.63 billion, +4.4% y/y, estimate $7.49 billion. Net new orders 18,355, +1% y/y, estimate 17,839. Gross
Margin on Home Sales 18.7% vs. 21.8% y/y. Backlog 13,145, -19% y/y, estimate 13,170.
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