- Asian Stocks Show Early Gains Into BOJ, Fed Week: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Asian shares snapped three days of losses to rise on Monday, before a week of key central bank decisions in Japan, the US and the UK, as well as some big tech earnings releases. Stocks rose in Australia, Japan and South Korea while Hong Kong futures edged higher. The upbeat tone came after US equities surged Friday amid bets that looming interest rate cuts. - Stock futures rise slightly ahead of loaded week for tech earnings
Stock futures rose modestly on Sunday evening as Wall Street gears up for a busy week of corporate earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 87 points, or about 0.2%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.3%. The move in futures comes after a volatile week in the stock market. - Hedge Funds Post Biggest Retreat on Bearish Yen Bets Since 2011
(Bloomberg) — Hedge funds beat a hasty retreat on bets against the yen as the once-beloved carry trade crumbled. Leveraged investors slashed 56,639 net short positions on Japan’s currency over two weeks to July 23, marking the biggest capitulation since early 2011, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. - Oil Holds Near Six-Week Low With Chinese Demand, OPEC+ in Focus
(Bloomberg) — Oil steadied near a six-week low as positive Chinese economic data helped ease concern over demand in the world’s biggest importer, before an OPEC+ monitoring meeting this week. Brent crude traded above $81 a barrel after falling 1.5% on Friday to notch a third weekly drop, with West Texas Intermediate near $77. Industrial profits in Asia’s largest economy. - BOJ Set to Cut Bond Buying as Fate of Rate Policy Stirs Jitters
(Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will have investors on high alert Wednesday when he lays out a detailed plan for quantitative tightening after years of massive easing. He may also double down by adding an interest rate hike to boot. While only about 30% of BOJ watchers predict a hike as their base-case scenarios. - Traders Fret as 32-Hour Central Banking Spree Hangs Over Markets
(Bloomberg) — Investors begin the week desperate for answers to questions about the near-term path of global monetary policy after conflicting signals from key economies upended markets. Major central banks are set to meet in Tokyo and Washington on Wednesday and London on Thursday, with traders struggling to decide if the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates. - Is the Fed Behind? Traders Bet on Big Rate Cuts Just in Case
(Bloomberg) — Bond traders who’ve set themselves up for gradual interest-rate cuts starting in September are ramping upside bets in case a sudden slide in the US economy forces the Federal Reserve to be even more aggressive. As Treasuries advance for a third-straight month, investors are fully pricing in at least two quarter-point rate reductions this year. - Gold Is the Best Trump Trade as Dollar Divides: MLIV Pulse
(Bloomberg) — Gold is the best portfolio hedge in the event Donald Trump retakes the White House, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. Proponents of the precious metal as a haven play in case of Trump’s reelection outnumbered those picking the US dollar two-to-one among the 480 respondents. - Yen eases as Nikkei jumps, central bank meetings loom
The yen ticked lower on Monday after a week when it surged to its strongest in 12 weeks against the dollar, as a recovery in equity markets sapped demand for the currency as a safe haven. A flush out of long-held short yen positions also appeared to have run its course by the end of last week, with traders now looking to central bank decisions in Japan and the U.S. on Wednesday for further direction. - Gold Gains as US Data Backs Case for September Rate Cut from Fed
(Bloomberg) — Gold gained for a second day as markets digested the latest US inflation data ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting later this week, where policymakers are expected to set the stage for a September rate cut. Bullion rose as much as 0.7% in early Asian trading after closing 1% higher on Friday following a report that showed the core personal consumption. - Malaysia Sukuk Weekly: SPR Energy M SDN 2026 Leads Declines
(Bloomberg) — SPREMK 5.11 07/17/26 had the biggest price move among 402 Malaysian sukuk tracked by Bloomberg in the week ended July 26, falling 7.07%. MALRAI 4.03 03/30/40 posted the largest increase. Among all Malaysia Government Investment Issues, series 0219 had the biggest price change, rising 0.29% to 105.884. Prices come from Bloomberg’s BVAL evaluated pricing service which has real-time access. - ASIA WEEK AHEAD: China PMIs, BOJ’s Double Punch on Rates, QT
(Bloomberg Economics) — The Bank of Japan headlines an action-packed week ahead in Asia. The BOJ is set to start unwinding its bond holdings and we see it raising rates again at the same time delivering a one-two punch to yen sellers. Most economists think weak consumer demand will stay the BOJ’s hand on rates. - Vital Energy in JV Buys Assets for $1.1B: M&A Snapshot
(Bloomberg) — Vital Energy says it signed a joint purchase and sale agreement with Northern Oil & Gas to acquire the assets of Point Energy Partners in an all-cash transaction for total consideration of $1.1 billion. The deal will significantly increase Vital Energy’s operational scale and footprint in the Delaware Basin and add high-value development inventory. - Trump’s Journey from Crypto Skeptic to Bitcoin Cheerleader
(Bloomberg) — It was supposed to be a cryptocurrency conference, but it could’ve easily been mistaken for a Trump rally. At an event where vendors hawked red hats reading “Make Bitcoin Great Again,” the crowd erupted in applause when Donald Trump vowed to fire Gary Gensler, the Securities and Exchange Commission chair, and replace him with regulators. - Australia Rate-Hike Debate Set to Crescendo with Price Data
(Bloomberg) — Debate over whether Australia’s central bank needs to deliver a late-cycle policy tightening is likely to be resolved with the release of quarterly inflation data this week and the currency is set to be swept up in the fallout. Consumer prices probably advanced 3.8% in the second quarter from a year earlier, versus 3.6% in the prior period. - Israel Hits Hezbollah for Golan Attack but Eyes Gaza Truce
(Bloomberg) — Israel attacked Hezbollah targets on Sunday and threatened further retaliation for a rocket strike that killed 12 youngsters while signalling openness to a proposed Gaza truce that could also calm the second and more combustible front with Lebanon. - South Korea Warns North May Do Nuclear Test Near US Election
(Bloomberg) — North Korea may be considering a nuclear test near the time the US presidential election is held to raise its profile, South Korea’s defense minister said, as Kim Jong Un rolls out new warheads capable of striking the US and its allies in Asia. Seoul will reach a deal with Japan and the US to standardize the tracking of missiles fired from North Korea. 18. 3M shares surged 22.99%, after it reported an upbeat second quarter earnings results. Net sales came in at $6.26 billion, beating estimates of $5.84 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (from continuing operations) was at $1.93, compared to $1.39 from the previous year. 3M also lifted the lower-end of its full-year earnings, as the company forecasted an adjusted earnings per share (from continuing operations) between $7 and $7.30 for the year ahead. - Hermes shares jumped 3.39%, after it reported second quarter earnings that topped the average analyst’s estimates.
Revenue came in at €3.70 billion, beating estimates of €3.65 billion. Sales at constant exchange rates rose by 13.3%, beating estimates of 11.5%. The Birkin bag maker weathered the luxury demand slowdown better than peers, thanks to its reliance on the wealthiest clients. The company’s results tend to be less volatile than other luxury houses because it enjoys strong pricing power and long wait-lists for its most coveted products, such as its Kelly and Birkin handbags.
19. Biogen shares slump as much as 7.7%, the most intraday since February, after a committee of the European Medicines Agency recommended against the approval of its Alzheimer’s drug with partner Eisai. The companies’ drug, Leqembi is already approved in other countries including the US, China and Japan ANALYST COMMENTARY. RBC Capital Markets, Brian Abrahams (outperform, PT $303): Says the opinion is “somewhat surprising”; “This is likely to somewhat hamper global perceptions and momentum for the drug and the class”. JPMorgan, Chris Schott (neutral): Says the update represents a setback to the international ramp of the drug and suggests “a very unclear path forward” for the product in the EU.
20. Capgemini shares slide as much as 9.4%, the biggest drop since July 2023, as it cut its growth guidance for the full year.
The IT services firm cited deterioriation in the automotive and aerospace sectors as well as a slower-than-expected recovery in spending in financial services and tech. YEAR FORECAST: Sees revenue in constant currency -0.5% to -1.5%, saw 0% to +3%, estimate +1.44% (Bloomberg Consensus); Still sees operating margin 13.3% to 13.6%, estimate 13.4%; Still sees organic FCF about EU1.9 billion, estimate EU1.91 billion; Says the slope of recovery in the second half will be affected by the recent deterioration of the outlook in the automotive and aerospace sectors and the slower recovery in financial services.
21. Nestle shares drop as much as 3.5%, extending declines for a fourth straight session, after the consumer goods giant was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank and Berenberg.
Deutsche Bank (cuts to hold from buy): The company put forward another disappointing outlook, analyst Tom Sykes writes, noting that gross and operating margins are likely to be down in 2H from the previous year. Given the mega-cap selloff and underperformance in consumer staples, Sykes says he is sure market would prefer to have Nestle as a more viable alternative in the portfolio, but the company’s lack of delivery is “making this very difficult”; “Our Nestle Buy stance has been very disappointing to say the least and whilst the valuation has come down a long way, we no longer have the confidence that even hitting H2 RIG offers enough risk/reward upside”. PT cut to €95 from €106.
22. Colgate-Palmolive shares rise 1% after the consumer products maker reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and boosted its annual EPS and organic sales growth targets.
Analysts broadly praised the beat-&-raise print, with Barclays calling the update “exceptional.” Shares have risen 21% year-to-date through Thursday’s close, making Colgate the top performer in the S&P 1500 Household & Personal Products Index so far in 2024. Barclays (equal-weight), Lauren Lieberman: “The stand-out figure is the +4.7% volume growth in the quarter, particularly in a market that is prizing companies that can deliver any volume growth at all,” Lieberman writes; “Broad-based” beat included 300 basis points of gross margin expansion, even with advertising spend reaching a “new high-water mark of 14% of sales”; Pricing was shy of her expectations, largely due to North America, where Colgate cited promotional cadence y/y and the pet food segment Hills, where Lieberman wondered if the “category backdrop could begin to put a lid on pricing growth.
24. Baker Hughes gains 3.2% on Friday after the oil-services provider reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Analysts are positive about the beat and guidance raise. SECOND QUARTER RESULTS: Adjusted EPS 57c vs. 39c y/y, estimate 49c (Bloomberg Consensus); Revenue $7.14 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $6.81 billion; Oilfield Services & Equipment revenue $4.01 billion, +3.5% y/y, estimate $3.91 billion; Industrial & Energy Technology revenue $3.13 billion, +28% y/y, estimate $2.89 billion; Orders $7.53 billion, +0.7% y/y, estimate $7.2 billion; Oilfield Services & Equipment orders $4.07 billion, -3% y/y, estimate $3.98 billion; Industrial & Energy Technology orders $3.46 billion, +5.4% y/y, estimate $3.07 billion; Adjusted operating income $847 million, +34% y/y.
25. Essilor Luxottica shares jump as much as 7.1% in Paris after the eyewear producer confirmed that Meta Platforms is interested in buying a stake in the company.
The Ray-Ban maker also reported results that RBC calls “fairly robust.” FIRST HALF RESULTS: Adjusted net income EU1.75 billion, +5.5% y/y, estimate EU1.68 billion (Bloomberg Consensus); Revenue EU13.29 billion, +3.4% y/y, estimate EU13.32 billion; Adjusted operating profit EU2.43 billion, +3.6% y/y, estimate EU2.43 billion; Adjusted operating margin 18.8%, estimate 18.3%; Free cash flow EU971 million, +1.8% y/y. SECOND QUARTER RESULTS: Revenue in constant currency +5.2%, estimate +5.63%; Revenue EU6.96 billion, +3.8% y/y, estimate EU6.97 billion; North America revenue EU3.10 billion, +2.3% y/y, estimate EU3.12 billion; EMEA revenue EU2.65 billion, +5% y/y, estimate EU2.66 billion; Latin America revenue EU387 million, +2.4% y/y, estimate EU398.6 million; Asia Pacific revenue EU821 million, +6.8% y/y, estimate EU801 million; Direct-to-consumer revenue EU3.62 billion, +3.7% y/y, estimate EU3.64 billion; Professional Solutions revenue EU3.33 billion, +3.9% y/y, estimate EU3.32 billion.
26. Aon PLC shares gain as much as 7.6%, the biggest intraday jump since July 2021, after the risk and insurance brokerage consulting firm reported second-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
SECOND QUARTER RESULTS: Revenue $3.76 billion, +18% y/y, estimate $3.71 billion (Bloomberg Consensus); Commercial Risk Solutions revenue $2.02 billion, +14% y/y, estimate $1.93 billion; Reinsurance Solutions revenue $635 million, +4.6% y/y, estimate $646.5 million; Wealth Solutions revenue $463 million, +32% y/y, estimate $425.6 million; Health Solutions revenue $662 million, +48% y/y, estimate $617.2 million; Adjusted EPS $2.93 vs. $2.76 y/y, estimate $3.10; Adjusted operating margin 27.4% vs. 27.3% y/y, estimate 27.3%; Organic revenue +6%, estimate +4.73%; Reinsurance Solutions organic revenue +7%, estimate +6.86%; Commercial Risk Solutions Organic revenue +6%, estimate +3.64%; Wealth Solutions organic revenue +9%, estimate +3.63%; Health Solutions Organic revenue +6%, estimate +6.23%; Operating expenses $3.10 billion.
27. Bristol Myers shares climb as much as 9.2%, the biggest intraday jump since October 2008, after the drugmaker boosted its adjusted profits forecast for the full year.
Barclays sees the earnings as a sign of momentum across the firm’s portfolio of newer drugs. YEAR FORECAST: Sees adjusted EPS 60c to 90c, saw 40c to 70c; Phase 3 trial evaluating efficacy and safety of cendakimab in patients with eosinophilic esophagitis met both co-primary endpoints; Will work with key investigators to present detailed results at an upcoming medical conference; Sees year total rev upper end of low single-digit range; saw low single-digit increase. SECOND-QUARTER RESULTS: Adjusted EPS $2.07 vs. $1.75 y/y; Adjusted gross margin 75.6%, estimate 73.8% (Bloomberg Consensus); Revenue $12.20 billion, estimate $11.52 billion; Eliquis revenue $3.42 billion, estimate $3.4 billion; Opdivo revenue $2.39 billion.
28. Norfolk Southern shares jumped as much as 10% on Friday, their biggest intraday rise since March 2020, after the rail company reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Analysts highlighted the company’s long-term margin improvement opportunity. SECOND QUARTER RESULTS: Adjusted EPS $3.06 vs. $2.95 y/y, estimate $2.87 (Bloomberg Consensus); EPS $3.25 vs. $1.56 y/y, estimate $2.88; Railway operating revenue $3.04 billion, +2.1% y/y, estimate $3.04 billion; Merchandise revenue $1.90 billion, +4.3% y/y, estimate $1.91 billion; Coal revenue $398 million, -2.7% y/y, estimate $379.5 million; Intermodal revenue $742 million, -0.4% y/y, estimate $759.7 million; Total carloads 1.74 million vs. 1,658 y/y, estimate 1.74 million; Revenue per carload $1,747, -2.8% y/y, estimate $1,747; Adjusted operating ratio 65.1% vs. 80.7% y/y, estimate 66.6%.
29. McDonald’s is about to report earnings. Here’s what to expect
McDonald’s will report second-quarter earnings Monday, with its shares off 15% year to date. The burger chain’s executives have warned the company is fighting for a smaller pool of customers. Wall Street is expecting the company to report flat U.S. same-store sales, according to Street Account estimates.
30. Stocks soar, Dow closes 650 points higher buoyed by bullish inflation report
Stocks jumped Friday, and Wall Street capped off a turbulent week on a positive note as investors weighed fresh U.S. inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 654.27 points, or 1.64%, to finish at 40,589.34. The S&P 500 climbed 1.11% to end at 5,459.10, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.03% to close at 17,357.88.
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